February 2015 update

WeatherAction were predicting heavy snowfall for Britain in the second and third periods of the month, which didn't materialise. However, yet again, the general pressure scanerio that led to the forecast prediction did materialise, in particular the "High Block Spain to Newfoundland" in the period 4-8 February. A huge area of high pressure 4000 miles across appeared in the Atlantic for a few days right on cue. Weatheraction's central prediction was for the outer reaches of this to be over the British Isles delivering significant snowfall. However, the High moved a few hundred miles east and delivered heavy snowfall to Denmark and Germany instead. In terms of the general pressure forecasts an accuracy of 6 out of 8 periods was easily reached, though this did not translate into a particularly successful detailed weather forecast for the month.

Weatheraction's forecasts have been less accurate in the last few months than during the 6-month period I analysed back in 2012. Corbyn has as much admitted this recent lower level of accuracy in his blog and attributes it to the unpredictability of the Wild-Jetstream-Age that we are now in. This has not led me to change my contention that there is something profound and real about the SLAT method because my analysis and general observations confirm it - in particular his quite remarkable forecasts on specific pressure patterns. His storm forecast in early January, for example, was nothing short of astonishing in timing and accuracy.

I believe Weatheraction should change the presentation of their forecasts to indicate a central projection but with room for variation around this, perhaps using concentric circles to indicate the likely track of rainfall within a range of possibilties. Then may then face less criticism when their forecasts are close but not altogether accurate.

If only the established scientific community could delve a little deeper into Weatheraction's work then a major step-change in weather forecasting could be on the horizon. A team of researchers with access to super-computing power would quickly uncover the statistical link between solar-magnetic particles and the weather and go far beyond what Corbyn currently achieves with a mere pen and paper, and quite possibly lead to both accurate pressure and accurate weather forecasts months in advance.